Global oil markets face uncertainty after U.S. airstrikes targeted Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. Experts warn the escalating conflict could disrupt 20% of the world’s oil supply that passes through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, controlled partly by Iran.

Iran’s parliament has reportedly discussed restricting or closing the vital waterway in retaliation for the U.S. attack. Such a move could trigger massive oil price spikes, with analysts predicting potential increases of $5 per barrel and U.S. gas prices rising up to 75 cents per gallon.

Market reactions were immediate, with oil prices jumping 4% Sunday evening while stock futures fell. The volatility reflects investor concerns about prolonged Middle East tensions affecting energy supplies. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called potential Strait closures “economic suicide” for Iran, especially regarding its trade relationship with China.

Energy experts offer varying predictions on the crisis’ impact. Oil analyst Andy Lipow warned of possible $100/barrel oil if Hormuz traffic is disrupted, while GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan expects a more modest 10-30 cent gas price increase, dismissing rumors of extreme spikes.

The situation remains fluid, depending on Iran’s next steps. Some analysts believe Tehran might weaponize oil prices to pressure the U.S., though this risks further military escalation. Former Bush energy adviser Bob McNally noted Iran could “create fear” through supply disruptions.

The conflict compounds existing market instability following Trump’s recent tariffs and Israel-Iran exchanges. With 20% of global oil shipments at risk, the crisis threatens both economic stability and geopolitical relations worldwide.

As tensions mount, all eyes remain on Iran’s strategic decisions regarding the Strait of Hormuz – a move that could either de-escalate tensions or plunge global markets into deeper turmoil. The coming days will prove critical for energy security and international diplomacy.